Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.064566 1.242664 1.441012 1.678262 1.954343 2.265518 2.642969
2024-12-22 0.740796 0.965852 1.244931 1.616359 2.097878 2.701363 3.515950
2024-12-29 0.629143 0.886789 1.231390 1.725834 2.417419 3.351239 4.709980
2025-01-05 0.507266 0.761940 1.124229 1.676899 2.499239 3.678993 5.503654
2025-01-12 0.416783 0.661471 1.028631 1.619238 2.546300 3.947795 6.232848
2025-01-19 0.349562 0.582814 0.949917 1.569118 2.588646 4.203720 6.964062
2025-01-26 0.312273 0.544548 0.926344 1.598749 2.755083 4.666445 8.076188
2025-02-02 0.294865 0.535948 0.948427 1.704396 3.057620 5.383818 9.700734
2025-02-09 0.271150 0.512374 0.940894 1.756151 3.271363 5.973353 11.176528
2025-02-16 0.246712 0.483626 0.919678 1.779037 3.433835 6.488613 12.579867
2025-02-23 0.222724 0.452082 0.888675 1.778373 3.550159 6.929941 13.895741
2025-03-02 0.200184 0.420082 0.852333 1.761777 3.631923 7.312697 15.141856
2025-03-09 0.182666 0.396419 0.830432 1.773496 3.776544 7.845198 16.778898
2025-03-16 0.160057 0.359037 0.776149 1.711706 3.763069 8.061096 17.798085
2025-03-23 0.155916 0.360913 0.803857 1.827740 4.141630 9.134457 20.785961
2025-03-30 0.138503 0.330603 0.758144 1.775935 4.144910 9.405482 22.042303
2025-04-06 0.122620 0.301526 0.711272 1.714886 4.118492 9.606269 23.163138
2025-04-13 0.109240 0.276478 0.670276 1.661820 4.103066 9.828637 24.361491
2025-04-20 0.102645 0.267097 0.664816 1.693193 4.293361 10.551392 26.855248
2025-04-27 0.101209 0.270504 0.690611 1.805048 4.695941 11.829118 30.885424
2025-05-04 0.096607 0.265060 0.693752 1.859843 4.961566 12.803775 34.275400
2025-05-11 0.090820 0.255650 0.685586 1.884073 5.151053 13.610023 37.332746
2025-05-18 0.084400 0.243600 0.668955 1.883370 5.273872 14.258818 40.053249